Saturday, July 21, 2007






Chart USDCHF(M15)

Chart USDCHF(M15)

SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT
C-A-N-S-L-I-M
C= current quarterly earnings per share
A= annual earnings increase:look for meaningful growth
N= new products,new management ,new highs:buying at the right time
S= supply and demand :small capitalization plus volume demand
L= leader or laggard:which is your stock?
I= institutional sponsorship:a little goes a long way
M= market direction:how to determine it?
Chart USDCHF(M15)


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Chart USDCHF(M15)

Friday, July 20, 2007

10 RULES FOR SUCCESSFUL TRADING


[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

Chart USDCHF(M15)

Traders have developed lots of rules over the years in an attempt to refine the way they make trading decisions. So it’s not hard to come up with a list of 10 trading rules that can be part of a trading plan. Some are generic and general and not exclusive to any particular trader or trading approach. Others can be very precise as traders tweak rules into their trading system. The rules below have been selected for their broad appeal to many types of traders. They are presented in no particular order of importance.

1.Don’t trade markets about which you know very little.This is not to imply that you have to be a fundamental expert on every market you wish to trade. However, you should know about what fundamentals are impacting, or could impact, a market you are contemplating trading. For example, a person who has only traded grains would not want to jump right into a Treasury Bond futures trade without first doing a bit of homework on how the bond market trades – price increments (dollar amount per tick), trading hours, on what exchange the market trades, etc.

A trader could pick up a Wall Street Journal and read the “Credit Markets” section for a week or so to become familiar with fundamental factors that influence the bond market. Also, consider this: Most traders enjoy the process of trading. If they did not, they would likely just hand their money over to a “fund manager” and give the manager discretionary control over their money. Learning and knowing what fundamental factors are impacting or could impact a market that a trader plans to trade is part of the process (enjoyment) of trading.

2. Don’t trade hot “tips.”
You may trade for 20 years and never hear a good trading tip. Reason: There aren’t any . . . at least not any that are any good for regular individual traders. Markets are way too big and too tightly regulated to be impacted by any tips or inside information. Any legitimate “early information” has almost certainly already been factored into the market price structure by the time most individual traders could ever benefit from it.

Don’t confuse tips with rumors. Markets do move on rumors more than just occasionally. Rumors are a part of trading but still fall into the category of “not much use” to off-floor traders. Besides, many rumors are never confirmed as fact and are often self-serving to those who try to start them.

3. Don’t get too fancy with your market orders.Entering a trade “at the market” with a market order may be the best way to enter a trading position, especially in markets that are liquid (have high open interest). It’s certainly the easiest way to enter. Fiddling around with limit or stop-limit or other multi-step orders to save a tick or two or three can cost a trader a good entry point or even a missed trade altogether.

It’s certainly easy to be guilty of this offense because every trader is always trying to get just a little better price. This doesn’t mean that limit or stop-limit or other types of orders are not useful in certain circumstances because they are. However, most trade entries are best made “at the market.” Look at pitchers in major league baseball who “nibble” with their pitches around home plate. Most wind up with a walk instead of an out.

4. Don’t form a new market opinion during trading hours.
This rule goes hand in hand with the rule that says you need to stick to your trading plan of action. Day-to-day market “noise,” or the minor up-and-down price fluctuations of a market, can be at least distracting to a trader and at most prompt the trader to make a hasty and poorly founded trading decision.

5. Don’t force trades; if you don’t see a trade, stand aside.
Don’t chase a market just to put on a trade. Try to exhibit patience and discipline in trading – easily said but hard to follow. Patience and discipline are not easy virtues for any trader to learn because a typical futures trader has a “Type A” personality with a competitive nature who hates to wait in lines. However, to have even a chance at success in trading, you have to control your impatience. If you happen to miss a trading opportunity because you waited too long, other trading opportunities will come along.

A good trade is usually profitable right from the beginning. If the market price moves “your way” in the first couple days after you’ve executed the trade, then odds are significantly higher that your trade will be a winner if you have waited patiently for the right position. This rule reinforces the notion that tight protective stops are an important part of trading success. But there is a time to be impatient: If a straight futures trade is under water after two or three days, more times than not it’s prudent to take a small loss and move on. Do not be patient with losers.

6. Use intermarket analysis to spot trading opportunities.No market trades in isolation but is influenced by what is happening in a number of related markets. Don’t focus on just one market as much of today’s single-market technical analysis does. Instead, take into account developments in other markets that are likely to affect prices in your target market. If you trade stock indexes, you have to be aware of what is taking place in interest rate, currency and commodity markets such as gold. The price of a market you want to trade may be the sum of what is happening in ten or more interrelated markets.

7. Watch open interest statistics, especially in options.
When you are contemplating trading any contract, make sure to first check the open interest for that specific contract or strike price. If a futures contract or options strike price has a low open interest total, it is probably best to seek out a more liquid contract. Fills on both entry and exit can be tough and may produce more slippage than is desired. When you get into a position, be sure it is liquid enough so you can get out on favorable terms.

8. Know what you can and cannot control.
You can control the market you want to trade. You can control the type of market order you want to give your broker. You can control when you want to enter the market. You can control the amount of contracts you wish to trade. You can control when you want to exit the market.

But you can’t control the market, which often has a habit of doing unusual and unexpected things. Knowing and prudently managing the market factors you can control and knowing that you cannot control the market gives you a trading edge.

9. Make the market’s action confirm your opinions.
If you have a particular market on your “radar screen” for a trade, don’t just jump in based on a hunch or a “gut feeling” or because you want to get a fill right away. That’s when a market order advised above may not be in your best interest. Make the market first confirm your opinion. Make the market show you some strength if you want to be long, or make it show you some weakness if you want to be short.

10. Do not overtrade.
Trying to trade too many markets or too many contracts in one market can create problems for an undercapitalized trader. There is no set rule for how many markets a trader should trade at one time. Some traders can trade many markets at the same time and not have a problem. However, if you are feeling stress about a position you are carrying or can’t keep up with what’s going on in all the markets you are trading, then you are likely over-trading.

For those traders who are really not sure how many markets to trade at one time or how many contracts to trade for each position, it’s always better to take a conservative approach. Step in slowly until you become comfortable trading in a larger size or in multiple markets.

Friday, July 13, 2007


Forex
The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest financial market in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The average daily trade in the global forex markets currently exceeds US$1.9 trillion. Retail traders (individuals) are a small fraction of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks.
Over come the market
successful trading(3M)
Mind
Method
Money
Technical analysis
1.stop loss
2.let profit run
3.protect your profit
4.contrarian opinion
5.learn and practice
6.investment discipline
7.right time/right price

Currency Converter
"Do not attempt to trade until you receive the education and training. There is substantial earnings to be made in the Foreign Currency Exchange Market, but trading on the Forex Market is for the well-informed."
(Jared Martinez, Author, Founder and CEO of Market Traders Institute, Inc.)

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DAILY SUPP-RESIST & PIVOT

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX







FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments.

Relates sites

4X Made Easy® - Forex trading software with real-time streaming data that's easy to use.
The leading trend recognition (spot) forex trading software with easy to use ... currency market (known as the FOREX) is the largest financial market in ...
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Forex Forum - Register
Forex-Training.com is dedicated to providing high quality training and educational resources for foreign exchange and commodity traders.
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Forex - taux de change - Mataf.net
Apprenez à traiter sur le Forex (Foreign Exchange) ... opérations interbancaires ce qui donne au forex une liquidité très importante. ...
http://www.mataf.net/

FOREX Bank -
FOREX Bank is the largest foreign exchange company in the Nordic countries. ... FOREX Bank's offices have generous opening hours and are situated in convenient ...
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Forex... proven forex trading strategies, including the most popular ebook on forex ever ... Subscribe to signals. Subscribe to charts. Risk Disclosure. Super-Special ...
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Amazon.com: forex
A community about forex. Tag and discover new products. Share your images and discuss your questions with forex experts. ... Odds in Forex Trading (Hardcover) ...
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FOREX, FUTURES, CFD. . ..:: Commission free trading, online real-time trading signals,most competitive margins ...
Neuimex offering access to Forex, CFD's and Futures markets. ... Neuimex is co-organizer at FOREX EXPO in Moscow November 24-25,2006 ...
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Forex.ca Education Centre, Forex Trading vs Equities
Forex mini accounts from $250, control up to 200:1 leverage. Free forex charts & quotes; forex ... Forex is a true 24-hour market, which offers a major ...
http://www.forex.ca/Forex_Trading_Equities.html

INDEX Foreign Exchange | Forex Trading | FX Markets
... market, also referred to as the "Forex" or "FX" market, is the largest financial ... Forex Directory. FX Week. FXstreet. Global View. TheFinancials. Home ...
http://www.ifxonline.net/

Forex news and ratesForex Center is a forex trading portal offering all the latest online forex news and rates. ... Forex Market News. Read all news. Advertisement. Advertisement ...
http://www.forexcenter.net/

Forex-Newsletters.com - Free Currency, Commodity, Index and Interest Rate Commentary, News, Charts and Market Data
Foreign exchange, interest rate and bonds newsletters featuring independent technical analysis and fundamental commentary, charts, and market data.
http://www.forex-newsletters.com...

Saturday, June 30, 2007

forex market time zone

Currency pair
A currency pair depicts a quotation of two different currencies. The first currency in the pair is the base currency. The second currency in the pair is labelled quote currency or counter currency. Such a quotation depicts how many units of the counter currency are needed to buy one unit of the base currency.

For example the quotation EUR/USD 1.2500 means that one euro is exchanged for 1.25 US dollar. If the quote moves from EUR/USD 1.2500 to EUR/USD 1.2510, the euro is getting stronger and the dollar weaker. On the other hand if the EUR/USD quote moves from 1.2500 to 1.2490 the euro is getting weaker while the dollar is getting stronger.
Majors are the most liquid and widely traded currency pairs in the world. Trades involving majors make up about 90% of total Forex trading.

The Majors are: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

GBP/USD is the only currency pair with its own name. It is known as "Cable", which has its origins from the days when a cable under the Atlantic synchronized the GBP/USD rate between the London and New York markets. But also there is lots of abbreviation's for other the currency pairs such as,
AUD/USD ... "Aussie"
EUR/USD ... "Euro"
GBP/JPY ... "Geppy"
GBP/USD ... "Cable"
NZD/USD ... "Kiwi"
USD/CAD ... "Loonie"
USD/CHF ... "Swissy"
USD/JPY ... "Gopher"
Technical analysis
Line Chart
All charts are plotted with time on the x-axis and the currency pair on the y-axis. Each time period on our real time charts can range from a tick by tick to a weekly interval (the tick refers to each individual pip movement). This gives traders the flexibility to view currencies with closer examination while also allowing them to spot the trends most suitable for their time-sensitive trading strategy.
A line chart's strength comes from its simple design; it provides an uncluttered, easy to understand view of a currency's price. Line charts display the currency's closing price.

A line chart is simply a graph of the value of a currency taken at regular time intervals based on current prices.
Graphical methods
Forex trend lines
Channel and Trading range
Support and resistance levels
Candlestick terms
Candlestick patterns
Figures
Online Forex Trading Bar Charts
Forex trading bar charts are the most popular method for Forex trading technical analysis worldwide. They have reached their popularity because they are useful and easy to understand. The activities of the hour/day/week/month is seen as a vertical bar in the chart. Horizontal marks account for Opening and closing prices. Every time you trade in online Forex, it is recommended that you use these bar chart patterns and indicators to help you invest properly.

Recognizing Trend Lines
A trend line is drawn in the bar chart to indicate the price of online Forex trends. An ascending trend line connects between the daily highs of the market. A descending trend line connects the day's low prices. If the downward trend line crosses the most recent prices - a buy signal is generated. If an ascending trend line crosses through the most recent prices, a sell option s generated.

Support and Resistance
If you look at an online Forex trading bar chart that details the change in the currency over time, you will notice that after the graph goes up and down for a few times, there is a horizontal line you can draw at the lowest place the graph arrives to, and also at the highest place the graph goes. This means that after the graph has dropped several times, it never drops more than a specific place - called the support level, and after the graph rises a few times, it stops also at regular places, called resistance levels.

An example of a support level is if the graph goes down to $4, then rises to $6, then goes down again to $4, and rises to $5, goes on to $4, etc. This means the support level for that graph is $4.

support levels are the places on the bar chart where online Forex traders feel the stock will move higher, and buy the currency more than sell it. Resistance levels are when there are more sellers than buyers.

When support levels are penetrated, and the price drops bellow the support levels, then the support level turns into a resistance level that will be the highest place the chart goes to. This is because the traders will sell that currency when it reaches the former support level in order to limit their losses and regain the former price they had.

Reading Online Forex trading Bar Chart Patterns
When you look at a bar chart, you can sometimes recognize patterns that can help you make the next trading decisions by anticipating how the online Forex market is going to behave. After you practice recognizing these patterns you will be able to see them automatically when you see a certain bar chart.

Analyzing Reversal Patterns in Bar Charts
Reversal patterns are recognized in the online Forex trading market with short and close drops and rises in the graph.

A Double Top - Here you see a long rise in the bar chart, then a short drop, another rise and a drop. The prediction says the next drop will be long, and the investor can predict the currency will drop. The shape of the double top looks like the letter "M".
A Double Bottom - The bar chart for this case is a long drop, then a short rise, a short drop and a rise. The final rise is predicted to raise more by the investor. The shape of the chart resembles a "W".
A Head-and-Shoulders Top - This bar chart has one larger top separating the two smaller tops that are similar to the double top. The larger top is called "the head", and the two smaller tops are called "the shoulders".
Head-and-Shoulders Bottom - This bar chart is the same as the previous chart only upside-down.
How to Read Continuation Patterns on Bar Charts
The continuation pattern indicates a certain direction that the online Forex graph follows, that is interrupted by a shot change in direction, and sonly after continues with the previous direction.

The Flag - In this bar chart continuation pattern, the change in direction of the online Forex currency consists of the same difference between the lows and the highs, and a continuing downward or upward slope of the graph.
A Symmetrical Triangle - In this case in the change of direction area the line of the bar chart becomes closer as the previous direction of the chart approaches.
An Ascending Triangle - This graph interruption indicates the unchanging of the high price, while the low price keeps getting closer to the high until the pattern continues.
A Descending triangle - The same as the ascending triangle only with the opposite roles, here the low price is the one that stays the same.
Rectangle - This is a pattern when the high and low prices stay almost the same for some time.
Gaps in the Bar Chart
Gaps occur when the bar chart leaps and leaves a gap between the former price of the online Forex currency and the next price. The breakaway gap continues the former trend in a different place, with a change in direction. An exhaustion gap comes right before a drop indicating the currency's exhaustion. An island reversal gap occurs when the chart suddenly breaks from the previous trend and immediately breaks again to another location. Some Economic Indicators are the causes for such gaps, but sometimes they occur spontaneously by themselves for no apparent reason.

Trudy Bates - Market Expert


Ascending trend
If currency demand exceeds the currency offer the exchange rate grows on Forex. On the contrary if the volume of currency which participants of the market wish to sell under the given concrete price more than volume of currency which other participants of the market wish to buy the rate falls.

If demand exceeds the offer long time and causes growth of a rate sooner or later it is saturated. Since some moment the offer starts to exceed demand. It leads to sale of currency that is expressed in some decrease of its rate - trend correction.

Trend correction: the movement directed against a direction of the previous trend. The given movement does not surpass the previous trend. If to consider a trend is the phenomenon which returns the prices in "a correct channel" and does not allow market movement to deviate fundamental factors.

On an ascending trend a part of participants open long positions, satisfied by growth of an exchange rate and start to close positions - to sell currency with the purpose to fix the profit quickly. However if the principal causes causing increased currency demand, have not changed, currency buying renews, and the rate increases. Then movement of a rate gets a direction, or a trend.

There are two kinds of trend: ascending and descending trend

Ascending trend - each time in exchange rate achieves higher value in comparison with previous rate - price movement at which each subsequent local maximum and local minimum above previous.

The bottom points of waves (local minima) join a direct line
Descending trend
Descending trend - each time Forex rate achieves lower value - price movement, at which each subsequent local maximum and local minimum below previous.

Trend line is drawn by joining of the top points of local maxima
The more points of Forex rate values get on a straight line, the more trend is especially confirmed. One of the trend force criteria is its reaction to support and resistance levels. Break of support/resistance level means, that the dominating trend keeps the force. The more trend encounters the resistance or support, being unable to overcomes them, the more strong signal about weakness of a trend we receive, and the more probability of a turn in the future.

There is a number of the general rules of trend force definition:

- The longer the trend is kept, the stronger it is, however it has a limit;
- The more abruptly and more quickly trend, the stronger it is;
- The long flat trend has an every prospect of the continuation;
- Very abrupt trend can abruptly turn over also;
- Any trend slackens, however probability of continuation of a trend in its any point above probability of its turn.
Reversal trend

Change of a trend (reversal) is expressed in change of a rate movement direction after a break point (penetration point). However it should be distinguished from a simple non-standard rate deviation which doesn't lead to change of a trend.

The break point forms a sell signal for the confirmed change of an ascending trend, the confirmed change of a descending trend forms a buy signal on Forex.

The best confirmation of change of a trend can be received when the former resistance line becomes a support line of a trend and on the contrary.

Transition of a support line to a resistance line.

hammer pattern

The Art of Candlestick Charting

The Art of Candlestick Charting

The candlestick techniques we use today originated in the style of technical charting used by the Japanese for over 100 years before the West developed the bar and point-and-figure analysis systems. In the 1700s a Japanese man named Homma, a trader in the futures market, discovered that, although there was a link between price and the supply and demand of rice, the markets were strongly influenced by the emotions of the traders. He understood that when emotions played into the equation a vast difference between the value and the price of rice occurred. This difference between the value and the price is as applicable to stocks today as it was to rice in Japan centuries ago. The principles established by Homma are the basis for the candlestick chart analysis, which is used to measure market emotions towards a stock.
This charting technique has become very popular among traders. One reason is that the charts reflect only short-term outlooks--sometimes lasting less than eight to 10 trading sessions. Candlestick charting is a very complex and sometimes difficult system to understand, but in this four-part series, we take go inside the more common ways to construct and read candlestick patterns. (For our other candlestick charting articles, see our Technical Analysis 101 archives.)

Candlestick Components
When first looking at a candlestick chart, the student of the more common bar charts may be confused; however, just like a bar chart, the daily candlestick line contains the market's open, high, low and close of a specific day. Now this is where the system takes on a whole new look: the candlestick has a wide part, which is called the "real body". This real body represents the range between the open and close of that day's trading. When the real body is filled in or black, it means the close was lower than the open. If the real body is empty, it means the opposite: the close was higher than the open.

Just above and below the real body are the "shadows". Chartists have always thought of these as the wicks of the candle, and it is the shadows that show the high and low prices of that day's trading. If the upper shadow on the filled-in body is short, it indicates that the open that day was closer to the high of the day. And a short upper shadow on a white or unfilled body dictates that the close was near the high. The relationship between the day's open, high, low, and close determine the look of the daily candlestick. Real bodies can be either long or short and either black or white. Shadows can also be either long or short.

Comparing Candlestick to Bar Charts
A big difference between the bar charts common in North America and the Japanese candlestick line is the relationship between opening and closing prices. We place more emphasis on the progression of today's closing price from yesterday's close. In Japan, chartists are more interested in the relationship between the closing price and the opening price of the same trading day.

In the two charts below I am showing the exact same daily charts of IBM to illustrate the difference between the bar chart and the candlestick chart. In both charts you can see the overall trend of the stock price; however, you can see how much easier looking at the change in body color of the candlestick chart is for interpreting the day-to-day sentiment.
Basic Candlestick Patterns
In the chart below of EBAY, you see the 'long black body', or 'long black line'. The long black line represents a bearish period in the marketplace. During the trading session, the price of the stock was up and down in a wide range and it opened near the high and closed near the low of the day.

By representing a bullish period, the 'long white body', or 'long white line'--(in the EBAY chart below, the white is actually gray because of the white background) is the exact opposite of the long black line. Prices were all over the map during the day, but the stock opened near the low of the day and closed near the high.

'Spinning tops' are very small bodies and can be either black or white. This pattern shows a very tight trading range between the open and the close, and it is considered somewhat neutral.